Measuring the Non-Transitivity in Chess


In this paper, we quantify the non-transitivity in chess using human game data. Specifically, we perform non-transitivity quantification in two ways—Nash clustering and counting the number of rock–paper–scissor cycles—on over one billion matches from the Lichess and FICS databases. Our findings indicate that the strategy space of real-world chess strategies has a spinning top geometry and that there exists a strong connection between the degree of non-transitivity and the progression of a chess player’s rating. Particularly, high degrees of non-transitivity tend to prevent human players from making progress in their Elo ratings. We also investigate the implications of non-transitivity for population-based training methods. By considering fixed-memory fictitious play as a proxy, we conclude that maintaining large and diverse populations of strategies is imperative to training effective AI agents for solving chess.

Algorithms 2022